The bullpen

Lots of articles recently about the state of the bullpen. As of this moment, only Farnsworth, Hawkins, Joba, and Rivera have spots lined up. Right now, it's impossible to tell in which direction the Yankees are leaning for the final spots. The good news is that the Yankees have plenty of guys competing, so if the winner in ineffective, there will be a replacement a phone call away. Following are the competitors and my thoughts on them.

The Long Relievers - I truly hope the Yankees don't take a long reliever for the sake of taking one. It appears, however, that Girardi really wants someone who can go 4 - 5 innings, and these are the unimpressive candidates:

Jeff Karstens: Karstens had a good run with Team USA this offseason, but he's been slammed with the Yankees, to the tune of a 5.65 ERA and 21/20 K/BB ratio in 57 innings. He's also been smacked around in his last 2 spring outings, leaving him with a 9.64 ERA this spring.

Even ignoring his major league numbers, which are partially skewed by a stretch last season in which he tried to pitch through an injury, I'm not a huge fan of Karstens. He gave up better than a hit an inning in the minors, and though his K/9 of 7.53 is decent, he doesn't seem to have the stuff to keep that up against Major League hitters. What he has is decent command of an assortment of below average - average pitches. I may be selling him short, but I just don't see him ever amounting too much in the bigs; he's just too hittable.

Kei Igawa: Though his name has become a curse to Yankee fans, he had a pretty successful career in Japan. His first season in the bigs didn't go as smoothly as hoped, but he did show some potential. He struck out 7.05/9 in the majors (I think he was leading Yankee starters in K/9 when he was demoted) and posted a 71/15 K/BB in 68.1 innings in AAA.

Sadly, that's pretty much the only good things I can find about his season. He gave up too many hits - 76 in 67 innings in the majors, 68 in 68.1 in the minors - too many home runs - 10 in 68.1 innings in the minors, 15 in 67 innings in the majors - and walked too many - 37 in 67 Major League innings.

After watching Igawa pitch last season and looking at his numbers, its clear that command and control are his biggest problems. He has the stuff to miss bats and be a successful pitcher, but he was rarely able to hit his spots. Even when he wasn't walking people, he always seemed to miss the mitt.

I know most people have completely given up on Igawa, but I still have some hope for him. His K/9, even with the big club, were encouraging and his career BB/9 of 2.58 in Japan shows that he does have the potential to improve his command. With that said, I think it's more likely that he flames out than it is that he'll improve enough to help the Yanks. I'm not sure why his command was so terrible on our side of the pond, but I've heard that Major League baseballs are bigger than Japanese balls, so that may have some sort of effect. It's also possible that he was thrown off in the spring training, when the Yanks didn't let him use his usual spring routine. He also seemed completely out of sorts during day games, as I've never seen another pitcher wear sunglasses on the mound. Whatever the reason, he'll have to show the Yankees something before they risk sticking him back on the mound during a big league game. Encouragingly, his spring outings have been decent after a horrible first outing, and he struck out 8 in 4 scoreless innings against Yankee minor leaguers. I don't think he's done enough to make the roster, but I think we'll see him at some point this year.

Darrell Rasner: Rasner was acquired on waivers from the Nationals several years back. He's had some success in the majors, with a 4.13 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 52 innings. This is a really small sample size, and his K/9 of 4.47, in the absence of a Wang-like sinker, is entirely too low to maintain that kind of success. He also missed much of last season with an injury, which is always somewhat concerning. He doesn't have dynamite stuff, but seems to have enough to survive in the Majors.

My take: I'm not quite sure why, but I like Rasner better than Karstens, even though they seem to be pretty similar pitchers. Their minor league numbers are eerily close:

Rasner - 3.41 ERA, 9.15 H/9, 0.52 HR/9, 2.41 BB/9, 6.78 K/9, 1.28 WHIP
Karstens - 3.48 ERA, 9/12 H/9, 0.71 HR/9, 2.30 BB/9, 7.53 K/9, 1.27 WHIP

I think Rasner's SSS success and Karstens' SSS failure has obscured the judgment of a lot of people, myself included. Even disregarding spring numbers entirely, I have more faith in Rasner than in Karstens. Just based on watching them the last few seasons, it looks to my untrained eyes like he has better stuff. Again, this could be because my last memory of Karstens is of him getting slammed while trying to work through injury.

If I'm the Yankees, and I'm determined to have a long man, I start the year with Rasner on the roster and Karstens and Igawa in the minors. I think Igawa has the most potential of the three, but I'd also like to see him prove that he can throw the ball in the vicinity of the strike zone before giving him a spot on the Major League roster. If Rasner starts getting hammered and Igawa proves he does actually suck, Karstens will be available to be called up.

My true solution, however, is to not have a long man.

The Lefties - Girardi has said that he'd like to have a lefty on the roster, but isn't committed to it. While it's nice to have a lefty in the pen, it's a mistake to carry one over a superior right hander. The Yanks have limited options in camp.

Sean Henn: Henn may begin the season on the DL with a tender shoulder and has pretty much no chance to make the squad. If you watched the Yanks last season, you know that he pretty much doesn't belong. However, here's a fun Henn fact for you: when drafted, he supposedly hit the upper 90's with his fastball. Wouldn't it be nice if that came back and he suddenly had a pitch with which he could get out big league hitters?

Billy Traber: I have not had a chance to see Traber pitch this spring, so I don't know a whole lot about his stuff. I do know that he's pitched 6 2/3 innings and given up 2 unearned runs, 2 hits, one walk, and struck out 7. It's only the spring, but he's been effective.

On the plus side, he did hold lefties to a .176 average last year, with 15 Ks in 15.1 innings. In his career, he's held lefties to a .212 average in 55 innings, with 53 Ks. It appears that, if nothing else, he can get lefties out. Righties are a different story, however, as they hit .380 against him last year, and have hit .328 against him in his career.

My take: Unless Traber has improved his ability to retire righties, he shouldn't be on the team. He's a LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY) at best, and I'm not a big LOOGY fan. It's easy for a bullpen to get tired when there's a guy on the roster who only pitches to one or two batters in a game. Also, there aren't all that many huge lefty hitters in the AL, I'd rather have a good right hander face pretty much all of them. Do you feel comfortable with Traber facing David Ortiz in a big spot just because he throws with his left had?

My solution: No lefty in the pen to start the year. Take an extra guy from the list below.

The rest - If the Yankees decide to go with a long man, the following guys are competing for 2 spots. If they want a lefty and long man, they're competing for one. All have a lot of potential, and all have a number of question marks. If nothing else, the depth is nice.

Jonathan Albaladejo: Acquired by the Yankees for Tyler Clippard, Albaladejo has little chance of making the team this spring, but will likely play a role with them in the future. He has pretty good stuff, featuring a fastball at 91 - 93 MPH and an average curve and slider. He has good control and has posted a K/BB of 440/103 in his minor league career, and at 6'5" and 250 pounds, he's quite an intimidating figure on the mound.

He pitched well in limited time with the Nats last year, but he hasn't been great this spring. I'd like to see him start the year in the minors to work on developing at least one of his offspeed pitches. While I like his fastball, control, and ability to get grounders, I'd like to see him scrap one of his breaking balls in order to more fully develop the other. Given the Yankees' history with prospects, we'll likely see him scrap the slider and work on the curve. An above average curve would help him tremendously.

Chris Britton: Britton has already been exiled to the minors by the Yankees. There appears to be something the Yankees don't like about him, and I'm not sure what it is. He had a successful 53 inning stint with the O's in 2006, and has good minor league numbers across the board. He has good control (2.85 BB/9 in the majors, 2.84 in the minors), strikes out batters (6.24 in the majors, 9.44 in the minors), and keeps the ball in the yard (.81 HR/9 in the majors, .80 in the minors). While he doesn't have dominating stuff, he has a fastball that reaches the low 90's and a very good curve. It does appear that he is a product of the Sydney Ponson/Curt Schilling donut diet, but that's no reason to keep him down. He may never be a setup man or closer, but he could be a big (*rimshot*) part of the Yankee bullpen. Hopefully we'll see him at some point this season, and not as part of the AAA express. He's earned the right to pitch in the majors and he could really help the Yankees.

Brian Bruney: You all know the story on Brian Bruney. He can bring the heat and strike out a ton of guys. He can also walk the ballpark and has a reputation for being thick-headed and difficult to instruct. The good news is that he dedicated himself to conditioning in the offseason and showed up at camp in the best shape of his life. Whether or not the improved condition helps him to harness his upper 90's fastball has yet to be seen. If he improves his control, he could be absolutely dominating. If he doesn't, he could continue to post a 1/1 K/BB and find himself off the Yankees. If he can lower his walks to even 3.0/9, he could be a huge asset. Let's hope it happens.

Ross Ohlendorf: Acquired in the Randy Johnson trade, the Yankees have moved Ohlendorf to the bullpen and like what they have seen. As a starter, he showed great control of a low 90's sinking fastball and some unimpressive secondary pitches. As a reliever, he's bumped his velocity to the mid - upper 90's, and he spent the offseason working on a splitter to neutralize lefties. I've read good things about his splitter this spring, and it sounds like it has the potential to be a big pitch for him in the future.

I love what I saw from Ohlendorf at the end of last season. In his callup, he showed a great fastball and excellent slider, though I've read that his slider isn't normally that impressive. I think he'll be a big time reliever for the Yankees this year, provided he can find some consistency with his splitter or slider.

Scott Patterson: Patterson a relative unknown, as the Yankees rescued him from Independent League purgatory in 2006. He was a decent starter in the Indies, but he really took off when he moved to the bullpen. Since the Yankees signed him, he has been nothing short of dominant. In AA in 2006, he posted a 2.33 ERA in 38 innings, allowing 26 hits, 8 BB, and striking out 44. The K/9 of 10.24 was fantastic, but he did allow 8 homers, which is a bit high, and he was 27 years old. Last year, he eased some of those concerns, posting a 1.09 ERA in 74 AA innings, allowing 45 hits, 15 BB, 1 homer (!), and striking out 91. He may have been pretty old, but those numbers are head turning in any league. He's been nearly perfect so far this spring, giving up 1 hit and no walks, while striking out 5, in 6 innings.

Patterson is a huge man, standing 6'7" and 230 pounds. He doesn't have the blistering fastball you might expect from someone that says, but he has fantastic command of his 89 - 91 MPH fastball. He also throws and an extreme downhill plane, employing a straight-over-the-top motion that makes it difficult for batters to pick up the ball. Right now, he throws a slow, loopy, show-me curve that isn't much more than a change of pace pitch. He worked on a slider for a while and has supposedly been working on a splitter, though I haven't heard a thing about how it's developed.

Even without an excellent breaking ball, Patterson could be a very useful pitcher for the Yankees. There aren't many pitchers who throw straight over the top, and there are even less of them who are 6'7", so he is a very unique pitcher. With his good command and deceptive delivery, I think he could post good numbers in the bigs for a few seasons, though at 28 years old, he's not going to improve much.

My take: I like all of these guys quite a bit. I think we'll likely see Bruney at the beginning of the year, as I don't think he has any options left. He's shown enough improvement in command (3BB in 7 innings - vs. 9 K's) to start the season on the roster. His arm is too tantalizing to give up on. However, if he struggles or someone gets hurt, it's nice that the Yankees have a bunch of guys with potential they can call on (I didn't even cover injury returnees JB Cox, Humberto Sanchez and Mark Melancon, or Edwar Ramirez). There is a very good chance we'll see all of these guys at some point this year..and it is extremely exciting. This post at the fantastic River Avenue Blues shows that the most effective way to build a bullpen is to acquire a bunch of moving pieces that can be called upon rather than to spend a lot of money on relievers who are, by nature, inconsistent.

There may be a lot of unknowns, but the tools are in place for the Yankees to have a dominant bullpen this year.